船用绿色燃料全生命周期温室气体排放多维度分析

陈超¹，曲金博²，冯永明²，耿佳东¹

1.中远海运能源运输股份有限公司，上海  200080；

2.哈尔滨工程大学动力与能源工程学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨  150001

摘要：为准确评价不同船用替代燃料对温室气体排放的影响，基于油井至尾流（well to wake，WTW）全生命周期对温室气体排放进行评价，选取散货船、集装箱船、油船3种船型，对比分析生物甲烷、电制甲烷、生物甲醇、电制甲醇、电制氨5种燃料对船舶排放的影响；采用蒙特卡洛方法分析船用替代燃料的不确定性，以散货船为基准，对燃料价格与WTW全生命周期碳排放强度均施加±20%扰动，检验不同燃料在不同船型下的适用性。结果表明：电制甲醇的排放性能仅次于氨但显著优于甲烷；在船舶舱容与补给约束下，电制甲醇的排放性能明显优于氨；在考虑碳税的因素下，电制甲醇具有较强的综合竞争力。采用绿色甲醇作为船用燃料具有减排有效、改造可行、成本可控的均衡优势。

关键词：船用替代燃料；全生命周期；温室气体排放；燃料成本

Multi-dimensional analysis on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of marine green fuels

CHEN Chao¹, QU Jinbo², FENG Yongming², GENG Jiadong¹

1. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200080, China;

2. School of Power and Energy Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China

Abstract: To accurately evaluate the impacts of different marine alternative fuels on greenhouse gas emissions, this study conducts an assessment based on the well to wake (WTW) full life cycle greenhouse gas emission theory. Three typical ship types, including bulk carrier, container ship and ocean-going tanker, are selected to comparatively analyze the emission characteristics of five alternative fuels: biomethane, e-methane, biomethanol, e-methanol and e-ammonia. The Monte Carlo method is adopted to analyze the uncertainty of marine alternative fuels. Taking bulk carriers as the benchmark, disturbances of ±20% are applied to both fuel price and WTW carbon emission intensity to verify the applicability of various fuels for different vessel types. The results show that green methanol presents the second-best emission performance, only inferior to ammonia and significantly better than methane. Constrained by ship cargo capacity and bunkering conditions, green methanol delivers much better comprehensive emission performance than ammonia. When carbon tax is taken into account, green methanol possesses prominent comprehensive competitiveness. Adopting green methanol as marine fuel achieves balanced advantages including effective emission reduction, feasible retrofitting and controllable operating cost.

Keywords: marine alternative fuel; full life cycle; greenhouse gas emission; fuel cost