基于PLS-SEM的新冠疫情常态化防控下老年人公交车出行行为分析

李纲，刘天昊

大连交通大学交通运输工程学院，辽宁 大连  116028

摘要：为分析新冠疫情常态化防控下老年人的公交车出行行为，以2022年大连市老年人公交车出行为例，结合计划行为理论与出行习惯为理论框架，构建偏最小二乘法结构方程模型（partial least squares-structural equation model，PLS-SEM），分析态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、出行习惯、出行意愿与出行行为间的作用关系。结果表明：新冠疫情常态化防控下，老年人的知觉行为控制对出行行为有显著的直接和间接影响，且在所有因素中影响作用最大，总效应为0.552；其余依次为出行意愿、出行习惯、态度和主观规范，主观规范对出行行为的影响作用最小，总效应为0.082；新冠疫情常态化防控下态度与知觉行为控制仍是出行习惯的前因。基于PLS-SEM的老年人公交车出行行为分析，反映新冠疫情常态化防控下各因素影响老年人公交车出行选择行为的内在作用机理。

关键词：老年人；新冠疫情常态化防控；公交车出行；计划行为理论；出行习惯；PLS-SEM

Analysis of travel behavior of the senior citizens by bus under the normalization of COVID-19 pandemic based on PLS-SEM

LI Gang, LIU Tianhao

School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering，Dalian Jiaotong University，Dalian 116028，China

Abstract:In order to deeply understand the bus travel behavior of the senior citizens under the COVID-19 pandemic situation, the travel behavior of the senior citizens in Dalian are taken as an research example in the year of 2022, the theories of planned behavior and travel habits are formed as the theoretical framework, and the partial least squares structural equation model is constructed to analyze the relationship between travel behavior and some affected factors such as attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, travel habit, travel intention. The results show that under the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic, the perceived behavior control of the senior citizens has a significant direct and indirect impact on travel behavior, and its impact is the largest one, with a total effect of 0.552. The impact of subjective norms on travel behavior is the least, with a total effect of 0.082. The rests are followed by travel intention, travel habits and attitudes. Attitude and perceptual behavior control are still the antecedents of travel habits under the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic. The travel behavior analysis of the senior citizens based on PLS-SEM reflects the internal mechanism of various factors influencing the bus travel behavior choices for the senior citizens under the normalization of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: senior citizens; normalization of COVID-19 pandemic; bus travel; theory of planned behavior; travel habit; PLS-SEM