洋山港VTS报告船舶流的统计特性

刘超

安徽交通职业技术学院 航海系，安徽 合肥  230051

摘要：为分析某水域船舶流特征和运行规律，量化研究船舶流到港规律，为港口营运和船舶交通管理（vessel traffic services，VTS）提供数据支持，以洋山港水域2020年66 d内连续的1387条VTS实测船舶流记录数据为统计样本，基于矩估计理论的K-S检验和χ²检验，从拟合最优的角度对船舶到港情况进行参数估计。结果表明，洋山港水域VTS报告的船舶在8、9月的船舶流样本服从正态分布，7月船舶流样本不服从泊松分布和正态分布，证明船舶流的分布特征随环境和时间因素变化显著，仅采用泊松分布或正态分布并不能全面描述水域交通流特征。相关研究结论可为船舶流特征分析、通航调度等相关研究提供借鉴和参考。

关键词：正态分布；泊松分布；K-S检验；χ²检验；船舶流

Statistical characteristics of vessel flow in VTS reports in Yangshan Port

LIU Chao

Department of Navgation，Anhui Communications Vocational & Technical College，Hefei 230051，China

Abstract:In order to analyze the characteristics and operation rules of ship flow in a certain water area, and research quantitatively the rules of ship flow to the port, and provide data support for port operation and vessel traffic services (VTS), parameter estimation of ship arrival from the perspective of optimal fitting based on the K-S test and χ²test of moment estimation theory is carried out, taking 1387 consecutive VTS measured ship flow records in Yangshan Port water area in 66 days in 2020 as the statistical samples. The results show that the ship flow samples reported by VTS in Yangshan Port waters in August and September obey Normal distribution, while the samples in July do not obey Poisson distribution and Normal distribution, which proves that the distribution characteristics of ship flow change significantly with environmental and time factors, and only Poisson distribution or Normal distribution can′t fully describe the characteristics of traffic flow in waters. The relevant research conclusions can provide reference for the analysis of ship flow characteristics, navigation scheduling and other related research.

Keywords:normal distribution; Poisson distribution；K-S test；χ²test；ship flow