基于N-K模型的土石坝渗流安全风险耦合

王宜港，王日升^*，赵瑜隆，陈其帆，王晓铭，蒋雪妮

山东交通学院 交通土建工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为提高土石坝的安全性，分析土石坝渗流安全风险源，基于N-K模型，将人为因素、材料因素、环境因素、管理因素等4个土石坝渗流安全风险影响因素按照不同耦合方式划分为单因素风险耦合、双因素风险耦合和多因素风险耦合等3种安全风险耦合类型，并结合具体案例计算相应的安全风险耦合值，得到不同安全风险耦合方式对土石坝渗流安全的影响程度，并提出针对性建议，以期降低土石坝渗流安全风险发生的概率。

关键词：渗流安全风险源；N-K模型；耦合方式；风险耦合

Seepage safety risk coupling of earth rock dam based on N-K model

WANG Yigang, WANG Risheng^*, ZHAO Yulong,

CHEN Qifan, WANG Xiaoming, JIANG Xueni

School of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract:To improve the security of earth and rock fill dam, the earth-rock dam seepage safety risk source is analyzed. Based on N-K model, the four factors affecting the seepage safety risk of earth-rock dams, including human factors, material factors, environmental factors, and management factors, are divided into three types of safety risk coupling, including single-factor risk coupling, dual-factor risk coupling, and multi-factor risk coupling, according to different coupling methods. Combined with specific cases, the corresponding coupling values of safety risks are calculated. The influence degree of different coupling modes of safety risks on seepage safety of earth-rock dam is obtained, and corresponding suggestions are put forward in order to reduce the probability of seepage safety risks of earth-rock dam.

Keywords:seepage safety risk source;N-K model; coupling mode; risk coupling