考虑行人预测机制的改进社会力模型

于瑞璟，杨宗霖，曹凤萍

山东交通学院汽车工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为提高行人交互场景中行人流建模的仿真精度，基于传统社会力模型，提出一种考虑行人预测机制的改进社会力模型，通过引入焦虑因子修正行人期望速度，使其随与目标点距离变化而动态变化；考虑不同方位行人及障碍物对行人交互作用的差异性，重新设计心理排斥力的作用方向，建立行人间、行人与静止障碍物间的冲突预测机制，设置多场景仿真试验验证改进社会力模型的可行性。仿真结果表明：对向行走场景中，改进社会力模型的行人避让路径长度比传统社会力模型缩短0.87 m，通行时间减少0.39 s，避让转向轨迹较平滑，能有效避免传统模型中的锐角转向与过大侧向位移；疏散场景中，改进社会力模型各时刻疏散剩余人数均少于传统模型，完全疏散时间缩短约8.0 s，出口区域拥堵现象得以缓解；同向超越行为模拟场景中，能准确模拟因期望速度差异出现的动态超越过程。改进社会力模型能模拟行人对向避让、人群疏散、同向超越等典型现象，更贴合行人的实际运动轨迹，可显著提高行人通行及疏散效率，对复杂场景适应性较好。

关键词：社会力模型；行人预测；行人流；仿真

Improved social force model incorporating the pedestrian prediction mechanism

YU Ruijing, YANG Zonglin, CAO Fengping

School of Automotive Enginecring, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract: To enhance the simulation accuracy of pedestrian-flow modeling in interactive scenarios, an improved social force model incorporating a pedestrian prediction mechanism is proposed on the basis of the traditional social force model. An anxiety factor is introduced to modify the desired speed, enabling it to vary dynamically with the distance to the target. To capture directional differences in interactions with surrounding pedestrians and obstacles, the acting direction of the psychological repulsive force is redesigned. A conflict prediction mechanism is established for pedestrian-pedestrian and pedestrian-static obstacle interactions. Multi-scenario simulations are conducted to validate the feasibility of the improved model. The results show that, in an opposite-direction walking scenario, the improved model shortens avoidance path length by 0.87 m and reduces travel time by 0.39 s relative to the traditional model; the turning trajectories during avoidance are smoother, effectively avoiding acute-angle turns and excessive lateral displacement present in the traditional model. In an evacuation scenario, the number of remaining evacuees at each time step is lower than under the traditional model, the complete evacuation time is shortened by about 8.0 s, and congestion near the exit is alleviated. In an overtaking scenario, the model reproduces the dynamic overtaking process arising from differences in desired speeds. The improved social force model can simulate typical phenomena such as head-on avoidance, crowd evacuation, and same-direction overtaking, aligns more closely with real pedestrian trajectories, significantly improves pedestrian throughput and evacuation efficiency, and exhibits good adaptability to complex scenarios.

Keywords: social force model; pedestrian prediction; pedestrian flow; simulation