基于博弈论–云模型的医药供应链中断风险识别与评估

张静卓，邵绘楠，刘华琼^*

山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为提高医药供应链中断风险识别与评估方法的准确性，基于供应链运作参考（supply chain operations reference，SCOR）模型和4M1E（man，machine，material，method，environment）分析法识别医药供应链中断风险因子，形成涵盖5个一级指标、15个二级指标的评价指标体系；采用博弈论组合赋权法计算介于主、客观权重间的最优权重，引入云模型计算医药供应链中断风险指标的数字特征，并生成云图，通过计算评价云与标准云间的贴近度分析医药供应链中断风险等级。选取典型医药企业进行实证研究，将基于博弈论-云模型的医药供应链中断风险评估模型与模糊综合评价法进行对比分析。结果表明：低风险、较低风险、中风险、较高风险、高风险的指标个数分别为0、1、4、7、3，多数指标的风险等级为较高风险，该医药供应链整体风险水平偏高；配送路线规划指标与高风险等级的贴近度最大，企业应重点关注物流配送环节的风险管控；综合评价云的主体位于较高风险标准云附近，期望值为7.438 4，该医药供应链中断风险的综合评价结果为较高风险；博弈论-云模型与模糊综合评价法对12个指标的评价结果完全一致。所构建的博弈论-云模型在实际应用中具有较高的可操作性与良好的适用性。

关键词：医药供应链；风险识别；SCOR模型；博弈论-云模型；风险评估

Disruption risk identification and assessment inpharmaceutical supply chains based on a game theory-cloud model

ZHANG Jingzhuo, SHAO Huinan, LIU Huaqiong^*

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of identifying and assessing disruption risk in pharmaceutical supply chains, risk factors are identified using the supply chain operations reference (SCOR) model and the 4M1E analysis method, forming an evaluation index system that includes five primary indicators and fifteen secondary indicators. A game theory-based combined weighting method is employed to derive optimal compromise weights between subjective and objective weights. A cloud model is introduced to compute the digital characteristics of the risk indicators and to generate a cloud map, and risk grades are determined through closeness analysis. A typical pharmaceutical enterprise is selected for an empirical study, and the proposed game theory-cloud model-based risk assessment approach is compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the numbers of indicators classified as low risk, relatively low risk, medium risk, relatively high risk, and high risk are 0, 1, 4, 7, and 3 respectively, with most indicators falling into the relatively high risk category, indicating that the overall risk level of the supply chain is relatively high. Distribution route planning indicator has the greatest closeness to the high risk grade, suggesting that firms should prioritize risk management in the logistics distribution stage. The main body of the comprehensive evaluation cloud lies near the relatively high risk standard cloud, with an expected value of 7.438 4, indicating that the overall disruption risk is relatively high. The game theory-cloud model approach and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method exhibit high consistency in the evaluation results for most indicators. The proposed game theory-cloud model demonstrates strong operability and good applicability in practice.

Keywords: pharmaceutical supply chain; risk identification; SCOR model; game theory-cloud model; risk assessment