黄河流域物流业绿色发展成熟度评价

周慧慧，陈建岭^*

山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为评估黄河流域物流业绿色发展水平，基于成熟度理论，从发展度、协调度和协调发展度3个维度评价物流业绿色发展水平成熟度；以物流业绿色发展水平成熟度为目标层，以经济环境基础、物流供应能力、环境友好水平与技术创新能力为准则层，共选取22项具体指标，构建物流业绿色发展评价指标体系；采用全局熵值法与序关系分析法（G1法）相结合进行指标赋权，通过加权逼近理想解排序法（technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution，TOPSIS）和灰色关联度改进距离协调度模型，计算黄河流域九省区2013—2022年的发展度、协调度和协调发展度。结果表明：2013—2022年，黄河流域物流业的经济环境基础、物流供应能力、环境友好水平和技术创新能力4个子系统的发展度普遍提高，但技术创新能力提高缓慢，制约绿色物流的深入发展；黄河流域各省区的发展度、协调度、协调发展度均呈不同程度的增长，增长趋势由大到小依次为发展度、协调发展度、协调度；四川、内蒙古、陕西、河南及山东的发展度显著增大，其余省区增幅相对较小；协调度整体处于较高水平，但省际差异明显；协调发展度呈下游高、中游平、上游低的阶梯式分布特征；多数省区的协调度高于发展度，反映出协调水平和发展水平存在结构性不匹配。可通过加强中上游地区技术创新与资金支持、强化区域政策协同与资源整合、推进基础设施互联互通与区域协同、建立碳足迹评价与碳交易引导机制，引导物流业低碳转型，实现黄河流域物流业绿色协调发展。

关键词：黄河流域；物流业；绿色发展；成熟度

Maturity evaluation of the logistics industry green development in the Yellow River Basin

ZHOU Huihui, CHEN Jianling*

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract: To evaluate the green development level of the logistics industry in the Yellow River Basin, maturity theory is adopted to assess maturity from three dimensions: development degree, coordination degree, and coordinated development degree; with maturity as the target layer and the economic-environmental foundation, logistics supply capacity, environmental friendliness, and technological innovation capability as the criterion layer, 22 specific indicators are selected to construct an evaluation index system for the green development of the logistics industry; indicator weights are determined by combining the global entropy method and the order relation analysis method (G1 method), and the development degree, coordination degree, and coordinated development degree of the nine provinces and autonomous regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2022 are calculated using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and a grey relational degree improved distance coordination degree model. The results show that from 2013 to 2022, the development degrees of the four subsystems, namely the economic-environmental foundation, logistics supply capacity, environmental friendliness, and technological innovation capability, generally increase, but technological innovation capability increases slowly, constraining the in-depth development of green logistics; the development degree, coordination degree, and coordinated development degree of the provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin all show growth to varying extents, with growth trends in descending order of development degree, coordinated development degree, and coordination degree; Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Henan, and Shandong exhibit significant increases in development degree, while the increases in the other provinces and regions are relatively small; the coordination degree is overall at a relatively high level, but interprovincial differences are evident; the coordinated development degree presents a stepped distribution pattern of high in the downstream, flat in the midstream, and low in the upstream; in most provinces, the coordination degree is higher than the development degree, reflecting a structural mismatch between the coordination level and the development level. Green and coordinated development of the logistics industry in the Yellow River Basin can be achieved by strengthening technological innovation and financial support in the middle and upper reaches, enhancing regional policy coordination and resource integration, promoting infrastructure interconnection and regional collaboration, and establishing carbon footprint evaluation and carbon trading guidance mechanisms.

Keywords: Yellow River Basin; logistics industry; green development; maturity