交通新质生产力水平测度、时空演变及障碍诊断

李潇，马凌

山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为系统分析我国交通新质生产力的发展水平，选取我国30个省、自治区、直辖市（不含西藏自治区、香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾省）2014—2022年的省级面板数据，依据交通新质生产力的内涵特征，从交通创新基础、交通设施进阶、交通绿色发展、交通效率安全、交通经济资源等5个维度构建交通新质生产力发展水平评价指标体系，分别采用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、莫兰指数及障碍度模型等方法分析交通新质生产力的发展水平、区域差异、演变特征、空间相关性及障碍因子。结果表明：2014—2022年，我国交通新质生产力发展水平稳步提高，但区域间发展不均衡，呈东部领先、中部平稳、西部和东北滞后的格局；东部、中部与西部地区的内部差异逐渐扩大，东北地区的内部差异略有减小，区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源；交通新质生产力发展水平在空间上显著正相关，东部地区省区市多为“高-高”集聚状态，其他地区主要为“低-低”集聚状态；光缆线路密度、快递业务量、软件业务收入等是阻碍交通新质生产力发展的关键障碍因子。应通过强化区域协同、优化资源配置、引导空间集聚、聚焦关键要素等措施，系统提高交通新质生产力的发展质量。

关键词：交通新质生产力；区域差异；演变特征；熵值法；莫兰指数

Measurement, spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle diagnosis of new-quality productive forces in transportation

LI Xiao, MA Ling

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract: To systematically analyze the development level of transportation new-quality productive forces in China, using provincial panel data for 30 provincial-level administrative regions from 2014 to 2022 (excluding the Xizang Autonomous Region, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan Province), an evaluation index system for the development level of transportation new-quality productive forces is constructed based on its connotation and characteristics. The system covers five dimensions: transportation innovation foundation, advancement of transportation infrastructure, green development of transportation, transportation efficiency and safety, and transportation economic resources. The entropy weight method, the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, Moran′s I, and the obstacle degree model are employed to analyze development levels, regional disparities, evolutionary features, spatial correlation, and obstacle factors. From 2014 to 2022, the national development level rose steadily, but regional development is uneven, showing a pattern of eastern leadership, relative stability in the central region, and lagging performance in the west and the northeast. Intra-regional disparities widened in the east, center, and west, while they narrowed slightly in the northeast; inter-regional differences are the main source of overall disparity. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation is observed, with many eastern provinces in a high-high cluster and other regions mainly in low-low clusters. Optical cable line density, express delivery volume, and software business revenue are identified as key obstacle factors constraining development. Strengthening regional coordination, optimizing resource allocation, guiding spatial agglomeration, and focusing on critical factors can systematically improve the development quality of transportation new-quality productive forces.

Keywords: new-quality productive forces in transportation; regional disparity; evolutionary characteristics; entropy weight method; Moran′s I