考虑异质性的高速公路客车交通事故频次影响因素分析

曹振，刘洪瑜^*，田准

西安建筑科技大学城市发展与现代交通学院，陕西 西安  710055

摘要：为提高高速公路客车交通安全，降低交通事故率，采集我国华东地区3条高速公路部分路段的客车事故频次、交通量、道路特征、气象条件和节假日占比共2 320条样本数据，考虑事故异质性，建立泊松-对数正态（Poisson-lognormal，PLN）模型、随机参数泊松-对数正态（random parameters Poisson-lognormal，RP-PLN）模型和随机效应泊松-对数正态（random effects Poisson-lognormal，RE-PLN）模型，采用贝叶斯方法和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛仿真估计模型参数的后验分布，由建模结果定量分析各因素对高速公路客车交通事故频次的影响程度。结果表明：RP-PLN模型的拟合效果优于PLN模型和RE-PLN模型；路段长度、交通量和节假日占比与高速公路客车交通事故频次正相关，温度、相对湿度和能见度与高速公路客车交通事故频次负相关。当其他因素不变时，路段长度、交通量分别增加1%时，高速公路客车交通事故频次分别增大0.90%、0.62%，节假日占比增加1个单位时，高速公路客车交通事故频次增大8.30%；温度、相对湿度和能见度分别增加1个单位时，高速公路客车交通事故频次分别减小5.72%、8.82%、6.55%。

关键词：高速公路；客车交通事故；异质性；RP-PLN模型

Analysis of factors influencing highway bus accidents frequency considering heterogeneity

CAO Zhen, LIU Hongyu^*, TIAN Zhun

Collage of Urban Development and Modern Transportation, Xi′an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi′an 710055, China

Abstract: To enhance highway bus traffic safety and reduce accident rates, data from 2 320 samples are collected, including bus accident frequency, traffic volume, road characteristics, weather conditions, and holiday proportions, from three highways in eastern China. Accounting for accident heterogeneity, Poisson-lognormal (PLN), random parameters Poisson-lognormal (RP-PLN), and random effects Poisson-lognormal (RE-PLN) models are established. The Bayesian method and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters. The modeling results quantitatively assess the impact of various factors on highway bus accident frequency. Findings indicate that the RP-PLN model exhibits superior goodness-of-fit compared to the PLN and RE-PLN models. Road segment length, traffic volume, and holiday proportion show positive correlations with accident frequency, while temperature, relative humidity, and visibility demonstrate negative correlations. Holding other factors constant, a 1% increase in road segment length and traffic volume increases accident frequency by 0.90% and 0.62%, respectively. A one-unit increase in holiday proportion increases accident frequency by 8.30%. Conversely, a one-unit increase in temperature, relative humidity, and visibility reduces accident frequency by 5.72%, 8.82%, and 6.55%, respectively.

Keywords: highway; bus accident; heterogeneity; RP-PLN model