基于改进HFACS的危化品道路运输事故致因分析

朱希望，王建豪^*，咸化彩，于源琳

山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为预防危险化学品道路运输事故，考虑人因分析与分类系统（human factors analysis and classification system，HFACS）中各致因类别在危险化学品道路运输事故中的具体表现形式，改进HFACS模型。采用改进后的HFACS模型对2000—2020年67起危险化学品道路运输事故的致因因素按各人因失误层级和致因类别进行归类统计与分析，采用卡方检验与让步比分析相邻层级间的内在联系。结果表明：个体层面的主要致因因素集中在违规和不良状态，具体为超载运输、行车前未进行车辆安全检查和注意力分散；组织层面的主要致因因素为安全教育培训不到位、动态监测不足及重效益轻安全；指导和监督不足是外部层面的重要因素。改进HFACS模型中相邻层级间的因素存在显著因果关系，导致事故发生的关键路径为组织外监管因素→组织过程漏洞→监督不到位→人员因素→违规。针对引发事故的关键路径及频数较大的致因因素，从外部监管和企业内部管理2方面提出针对性预防措施。

关键词：危险化学品；道路运输事故；HFACS；事故致因；卡方检验；让步比

Causal analysis of hazardous chemicals road transport accidents based on improved HFACS model

ZHU Xiwang, WANG Jianhao^*, XIAN Huacai, YU Yuanlin

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract: To prevent hazardous chemicals road transport accidents, the human factors analysis and classification system(HFACS) model improved by considering the specific manifestations of various causal categories in hazardous chemicals road transport accidents. The improved HFACS model is applied to categorize and analyze the causal factors of 67 hazardous chemicals road transport accidents occurring between 2000 and 2020, based on human error levels and causal categories. Chi-square tests and odds ratio analysis are used to explore the intrinsic connections between adjacent levels. The results show that the main causal factors at the individual level are violations and poor conditions, specifically including overloaded transportation, failure to conduct vehicle safety checks before driving, and distracted attention. At the organizational level, the key causal factors are inadequate safety education and training, insufficient dynamic monitoring, and a focus on profit over safety. Inadequate guidance and supervision are significant external-level factors. The improved HFACS model reveals significant causal relationships between factors at adjacent levels, with the key causal path for accidents being external regulatory factors→organizational process flaws→inadequate supervision→human factors→violations. Based on the identified key causal path and high-frequency causal factors, targeted preventive measures are proposed from both external regulation and internal corporate management perspectives.

Keywords: hazardous chemical; road transportation accident; HFACS; accident cause; chi-square test; odds ratio