政府调控下居民绿色出行的演化及扩散

曾益，李勤川^*

华东交通大学交通运输工程学院，江西 南昌  330013

摘要：为分析政府政策调控对居民绿色出行的作用机制，考虑政府政策调控和出行成本影响，构建政府调控下居民绿色出行和非绿色出行的演化博弈模型，探索居民向绿色出行转型的演化路径，并进行求解分析和仿真验证。采用Lotka-Volterra模型研究不同政府调控力度下绿色出行的扩散路径和趋势，证实政府调控是推动居民向绿色出行转型的重要因素。结果表明：分析政府和居民双方策略演化博弈模型，可得到不同条件下的2个稳定均衡点，设置的初始点不同时，最终都会向稳定均衡点演化；将演化路径与扩散模型平衡解进行匹配，可得到绿色出行扩散路径；政府调控能有效促进居民向绿色出行转型，不断调整调控力度，政府的补贴和税费政策对居民向绿色出行转型起重要推动作用。为鼓励更多居民选择绿色出行方式，政府应实行补贴为主，惩罚为辅的调控模式。

关键词：绿色出行；演化博弈模型；Lotka-Volterra模型；政府调控

The evolution and diffusion of residents′ green travel under government regulation

ZENG Yi, LI Qinchuan^*

School of Transportation Engineering, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013, China

Abstract: To analyze the mechanism of government policy regulation on residents′ green travel, considering the impact of government policy regulation and travel costs, an evolutionary game model of residents′ green travel and non-green travel under government guidance is constructed, exploring the evolutionary path of residents′ green travel transformation, and conducting solution analysis and simulation verification. The Lotka-Volterra model is used to study the diffusion paths and trends of green travel under different levels of government regulation, confirming that government regulation is an important factor in promoting residents′ transition to green travel. The results show that through the analysis of the evolutionary game model of strategies between the government and residents, two stable equilibrium points can be obtained under different conditions. Regardless of the initial point set, the evolution will ultimately move towards the stable equilibrium point. By matching the evolutionary path with the equilibrium solution of the diffusion model, the diffusion path of green travel can be obtained. Through diffusion simulation, it is known that government regulation can effectively promote residents′ transition to green travel. By continuously adjusting the regulatory intensity, government subsidies and tax policies play an important role in promoting residents′ transition to green travel. To encourage more residents to choose green travel modes, the government should implement a regulatory model that emphasizes subsidies and complements penalties.

Keywords: green travel; evolutionary game model; Lotka-Volterra model; government regulation