基于HFACS-FCMs模型的船舶搁浅事故人因分析

王群朋¹，沙正荣¹，张金水¹，马杰灵²

1.广州航海学院海运学院，广东 广州  510725；2.桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院，广西 桂林  541004

摘要：为分析船舶搁浅事故致因因素中人为失误的干扰，建立人为因素分析及分类系统（human factors analysis and classification system，HFACS）-模糊认知地图（fuzzy congitive maps，FCMs）量化分析模型，从4个层面、20个分类项目角度分析在船舶搁浅事故中人为因素的影响，采用航运业专家对船舶搁浅事故致因因子的评估打分方法，构建船舶搁浅事故致因因子关系矩阵，以模拟与计算的总体中心值和标准中心值分析船舶搁浅事故致因因子。结果表明：船舶安全管理组织不当对船舶搁浅事故影响最大，组织影响和不安全行为前提条件对船舶搁浅事故影响较大，不安全行为与不安全监督对船舶搁浅事故影响次之，缺乏团队合作对船舶搁浅事故影响最小。结合分析结果，提出船舶搁浅事故的预防措施，为有效预防和减少人为失误导致的船舶搁浅事故提供参考。

关键词：船舶搁浅；HFACS；FCMs；人因分析

Human factors analysis of ship grounding accident based on HFACS-FCMs model

WANG Qunpeng¹, SHA Zhengrong¹, ZHANG Jinshui¹, MA Jieling²

1.School of Navigation, Guangzhou Maritime University, Guangzhou 510725, China;

2. School of Architecture and Transportation Engineering, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China

Abstract:In order to analyze the interference caused by human errors in the factors causing the ship grounding accidents, a quantitative analysis model of human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS)-fuzzy cognitive map (FCMs) is established.The impact of human factors in ship grounding accidents is analyzed from the perspective of 20 classification projects at four levels. The evaluation and scoring method of shipping industry experts is adopted on the causal factors of ship grounding accidents. A relationship matrix of causal factors for ship grounding accidents is constructed. The causal factors of ship grounding accidents are analyzed from the overall central value and standard central value of simulation and calculation. The results indicate that improper organization of ship safety management has the greatest impact on ship grounding accidents; Organizational influence and unsafe behavior prerequisites have a greater impact on ship grounding accidents, followed by unsafe behavior and supervision; Lack of team cooperation has the least impact on ship grounding accidents. Combined with the analysis results, the preventive measures for ship grounding accidents are put forward, which can provide reference for effective prevention and reduction of ship grounding accidents caused by human errors.

Keywords:ship grounding; HFACS; FCMs; human factor analysis