基于贝叶斯定理的船舶交通事故环境因素分析

刘超

安徽交通职业技术学院航海系，安徽 合肥  230051

摘要：为研究环境因素对船舶交通事故的影响，采用贝叶斯定理建立船舶交通事故概率模型，采集洋山深水港交通事故数据进行案例分析和模型验证。结果表明：风力超过15 kn，发生船舶交通事故的概率将增加到无条件事故概率的13倍；流速为最高流速的1/2时，发生船舶交通事故的概率将增至无条件概率的33%，验证了船舶交通事故概率模型的科学性和有效性。

关键词：船舶交通安全；贝叶斯估计；事故因素；事故概率预测

Environmental factors analysis of ship traffic accidents based on Bayes theorem

LIU Chao

Department of Navgation，Anhui Communications Vocational & Technical College，Hefei 230051，China

Abstract:To study the impact of environmental factors on ship traffic accidents, the probability model of ship traffic accidents is established with Bayesian theorem.The traffic accident data of Yangshan deep-water port are collected for case analysis and model validation.The results show that when the wind force exceeds 15 kn, the probability of ship traffic accidents will increase to 13 times that of unconditional accidents; When the flow rate is 1/2 of the maximum flow rate, the probability of ship traffic accidents will increase to 33% of the unconditional probability; It verifies the scientificity and effectiveness of the ship traffic accident probability model.

Keywords:ship traffic safety; Bayesian estimation; accident factor; accident probability prediction