基于LEAP模型的省域货运物流碳达峰路径分析

王君¹，张萌萌¹，付建村²，解晓燕²，徐畅²

1.山东交通学院 交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357；2.山东省交通科学研究院，山东 济南  250100

摘要：为分析省域层面货运物流碳达峰路径，以某省为例，应用长期能源替代规划系统（long-range energy alternatives planning systems，LEAP）模型，预测基准情景和低碳情景下2019—2050年某省货运物流领域的能源需求、CO₂排放和减排潜力，并提出碳达峰路径方案。结果表明：基准情景下某省货运物流能源需求和CO₂排放均将于2038年左右达峰，低碳情景下达峰时间分别有望提前到2034年、2033年。公路货运的减排潜力巨大，应大力推进“公转铁”“公转水”，不断提高交通工具的能效水平及新能源、清洁能源的应用比例，配套建设新能源与清洁能源基础设施，加快低碳技术在货运物流中的创新应用。

关键词：LEAP模型；货运物流；碳达峰路径;低碳

Analysis of CO₂ emission peak path of provinical freight logistics based on LEAP Model

WANG Jun¹, ZHANG Mengmeng¹, FU Jiancun², XIE Xiaoyan², XU Chang²

1.School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University,Jinan 250357, China;

2. Shandong Transportation Institute, Jinan 250100, China

Abstract:In order to analyze the carbon peak path of logistics at the provincial level, the long-run energy alternativesplanning (LEAP) model isappliedtopredicttheenergydemand, CO₂emissionandemissionreduction potential of provincial freght logistics from the year of 2019 to 2050 under baseline scenario and low-carbon scenario, then the carbon peak path scheme are put forward. The results show that the energy demand and CO₂ emission of provincial freight logistics may reach the peak around 2038 under the baseline scenario, and the peak time under the low-carbon scenario is expected in the year of 2034 and 2033 respectively. So trucking area has huge emission reduction tasks. Therefore, in highway logistics area, if possible, the alternatives of "trucking to railway" or "trucking to water" should be promoted urgently, the efficiency level of energy using by transportation vehicles should be improved constantly, the using ratios of new energy and clean energy should be raised, some supporting infrastructure of new and clean energies should be constructed, and the innovative using of low-carbon technologies in logistics should be accelerated in the coming decades.

Keywords:LEAP model; logistics; CO₂ emission peak path; low-carbon