基于“2-4”模型的高速公路交通事故致因分析

寇子卿^1,2，张萌萌^1,2*

1.山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南250357；2.山东省智慧交通重点实验室(筹)，山东 济南250357

摘要：为降低高速公路交通事故发生率，采用事故致因“2-4”模型分析广东省某高速公路3起重大交通事故及山东省某高速公路2起重大交通事故的致因。分别从个人层面的不安全动作、物态和安全能力，组织层面的安全管理体系和安全文化建立交通事故致因链。结果表明：事故的直接原因是未采取必要的减速措施控制行车速度、未与前方车辆保持合理的安全距离、长下坡导致制动性能下降、未按法规规范处理超载车辆、夜间行车视线不良、雨天路滑及缺乏路侧引导警示设备；事故的间接原因是驾驶员与管理人员缺乏相应的安全知识、安全意识；事故的根本原因是交通安全法规未有效执行、“一路三方”体系有待完善；事故的根源原因是交通安全文化不完善。

关键词：交通事故；事故致因分析；事故致因“2-4”模型；高速公路

Cause analysis of highway traffic accidents based on the 24Model

KOU Ziqing^1,2, ZHANG Mengmeng^1,2*

1. School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China;

2. Shandong Key Laboratory of Smart Transportation( Preparation) ,Jinan 250357,China

Abstract:In order to reduce the occurrence rate of highway traffic accidents, the causation of three major traffic accidents on a highway in Guangdong Province and two major traffic accidents on a highway in Shandong Province are analyzed using the 24Model. The causation chain of traffic accidents is established from the perspectives of unsafe actions, physical and safety capabilities at the individual level, and the safety management system and safety culture at the organizational level. The results show that the direct causes of the accidents include failure to take necessary deceleration measures to control the speed, failure to maintain a reasonable distance from the preceding vehicle, failure to control vehicle speed due to long downhill sections, failure to handle overloaded vehicles in accordance with regulations, poor visibility during night driving, slippery roads in rainy weather, and lack of road-side guiding warning devices. The indirect causes of the accidents include a lack of safety knowledge and awareness among drivers and management personnel. The root causes of the accidents include ineffective enforcement of traffic safety regulations and the need for improvement in the “one road, three parties” system. The fundamental cause of the accidents is the lack of a perfect traffic safety culture.

Keywords:traffic accident; accident causation analysis; the 24Model; highway