基于VISSIM仿真的高速公路交通事故拥堵扩散与消散预测

余雪，高超，张冲，武青青，徐长舜，郭春敏

山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为解决高速公路交通事故产生的偶发性拥堵问题，采用仿真软件VISSIM模拟道路交通事故拥堵演变过程，以15 min为统计间隔获取交通流数据，通过数据拟合得到拥堵和不拥堵2种状态下交通流速度-密度的分段关系式，基于交通波理论建立高速公路交通拥堵扩散与消散预测模型，计算不同上游到达流量和不同事故车辆阻断时间下的交通拥堵持续时间，并通过VISSIM仿真验证模型的准确性。结果表明，高速公路交通拥堵扩散与消散预测模型对交通拥堵持续时间的预测准确度约为95%，能较好地预测高速公路交通拥堵变化。高速公路交通拥堵扩散与消散预测模型对合理安排人力与物力救援资源、提高道路通行效率具有重要意义。

关键词：高速公路；交通拥堵；VISSIM仿真；交通事故；持续时间

The prediction of congestion diffusion and dissipation when encounter traffic accident on expressway based on VISSIM simulation

YU Xue, GAO Chao, ZHANG Chong, WU Qingqing,

XU Changshun, GUO Chunmin

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract:In order to solve the problem of accidental congestion on expressway, VISSIM simulation is used to simulate the process of congestion formation caused by traffic accidents, so, traffic flow data are obtained at the statistical interval of 15 min. Through data fitting, the segmental relation formula of speed-density under two situations of congestion and non-congestion are obtained. Based on the traffic wave theory, a prediction model of expressway traffic congestion diffusion and dissipation is established to calculate the duration of traffic congestion under different upstream arrival flows and different blocking periods in various traffic accidents. The accuracy of the model is tested by using VISSIM simulation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the traffic congestion on expressway diffusion and dissipation prediction model is around 95%, which can predict the change of traffic congestion very well. The prediction model of traffic congestion on expressway diffusion and dissipation is helpful to the reasonable arrangement of human and material rescue resources, also it is very useful to enhance the traffic flow efficiency.

Keywords: expressway; traffic congestion; VISSIM simulation; traffic accident; duration