大风浪条件下考虑避碰脆弱性的多船避碰决策

胡宴才，张强，吴恒涛

山东交通学院 航运学院，山东 威海  264209

摘要：为解决大风浪影响下船舶操纵能力降低、产生避碰脆弱性、碰撞事故发生概率增大的问题，考虑船舶长度，分析大风浪因素，获得船舶避碰脆弱性；选取船舶碰撞危险度指标进行模糊推理得到基本的碰撞危险度，提出考虑船舶综合碰撞危险度的多船避碰决策方法。利用多船会遇构建避碰决策模糊案例库，提供对应的避碰决策，并利用仿真试验验证避碰决策方法的有效性。结果表明：多船避碰决策方法可准确计算不同长度船舶的避碰脆弱性，提供周围船舶的综合碰撞危险度，进行有效的多船避碰决策。此方法可为大风浪条件下的船舶航行安全提供重要的理论依据和数据参考。

关键词：多船避碰；模糊推理；案例推理；避碰脆弱性；碰撞危险度

Multi-vessels collision avoidance decisions considering the vulnerability of collision avoidance under heavy storm wave

HU Yancai, ZHANG Qiang, WU Hengtao

Shipping College，Shandong Jiaotong University，Weihai 264209，China

Abstract:In order to solve the problem that the ship′s maneuvering ability is reduced, and the collision avoidance vulnerability is generated and the collision accident probability is increased under the influence of heavy storm waves, the ship′s collision avoidance vulnerability is obtained by analyzing the factors of heavy storm waves and the ship′s length. The basic collision risk is obtained by fuzzy reasoning and a multi-ship collision avoidance decision method considering the comprehensive collision risk is proposed. The fuzzy case base of collision avoidance decision is constructed by using multi-ship collision, the corresponding collision avoidance decision is provided, and the effectiveness of the collision avoidance decision method is verified by simulation experiments. The results show that the multi-ship collision avoidance decision-making method can accurately calculate the collision avoidance vulnerability of ships of different lengths, provide the comprehensive collision risk of surrounding ships, and make effective multi-ship collision avoidance decision. This method can provide important theoretical basis and data reference for ship navigation safety under heavy storm wave conditions.

Keywords:multi-vessels collision avoidance; fuzzy reasoning; case-based reasoning; collision prevention vulnerability；risk of collision