济南都市圈高速公路交通流空间演化及影响因素

姜勇¹，代洪娜²，黄玉娟³，高超³

1.山东交通学院 交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357；

2.山东交通学院 顿河学院，山东 济南  250357；3.山东交通学院 科研处，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为分析高速公路对都市圈发展的影响机理，基于济南都市圈2013、2019年的高速公路收费数据，采用空模型法，通过距离衰减函数分析高速公路交通流的空间分布规律及影响因素。结果表明：2019年济南都市圈出行距离相较于2013年的0~110 km增至0~130 km；2013、2019年济南都市圈高速公路交通流出行时间均集中在0~61 min；2019年济南都市圈距离衰减系数减小，呈由济南市中心城区向其他市中心城区、县（区）的梯度递减特征，由块状分布演变为以济南市为分界线的西高东低片状空间分布；2019年济南都市圈高速公路日均车流量比2013年明显增加，呈济南市为核心、相对集聚的多中心“云朵状”空间分布；济南都市圈高速公路交通流距离衰减系数与经济密度、人口密度、国内生产总值（gross domestic product，GDP）和人口数量4个因素呈显著的负线性相关，且影响程度依次降低。未来应继续加强济南市与鲁西地区的经济联系，实现济南都市圈内各区县经济协同发展。

关键词：高速公路；距离衰减系数；济南都市圈；空间分布

Spatial evolution and influencing factors of expressway traffic flow in Jinan metropolitan areas

JIANG Yong¹, DAI Hongna², HUANG Yujuan³, GAO Chao³

1.School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China;

2.School of the Don River, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China;

3.Office of Academic Research, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract:In order to analyze the influence mechanism of expressway on the development of metropolitan areas, based on the expressway tolling data of Jinan metropolitan areas in the year of 2013 and 2019, the null model method and the distance decay function method are used to analyze the spatial scattering pattern and influencing factors of expressway traffic flow. The results show that the travel distances in Jinan metropolitan areas increased from 0-110 km in 2013 to 0-130 km in 2019，while the travel time spans through expressway traffic in Jinan metropolitan areas concentrated in 0-61 min both in the year of 2013 or 2019; the distance decay coefficient of Jinan metropolitan areas decreased in the year of 2019, the decaying feature was gradient decreasing from the downtown of Jinan to the suburb districts even other county areas, the traffic pattern has evolved from block scattering to low-flake spatial scattering, the spatial scattering of traffic flow shows higher in the eastern areas and lower in the western areas if Jinan was in the middle area. The average daily traffic volume of expressways in Jinan metropolitan areas in 2019 increased significantly compared with that in 2013, with the city of Jinan was as the core, the spatial scattering was the multi-center "cloud-like" and relatively clustered. The distance decaying coefficient of expressway traffic flow distance in Jinan metropolitan areas has a significant negative linear correlation with the 4 factors (economic density, population density, gross domestic product and population number), and the influence degree decreases successively. In the future, we should continue to strengthen the economic relations between Jinan City and western areas and realize the coordinated economic development of all districts and counties in Jinan metropolitan areas.

Keywords:expressway; distance decaying coefficient; Jinan metropolitan areas; space scattering