山东省综合交通运输效率评价与关联度分析

李兴宏，刘华琼^*，胡宗磊

山东交通学院 交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为测度山东省综合交通运输效率，以2010—2019年山东省的公路通车里程、铁路运营里程、航空里程及港口码头泊位数为投入指标，以客、货运输量及周转量为产出指标，采用以投入为导向的数据包络分析（data envelopment analysis，DEA）模型计算山东省综合交通运输效率；采用灰色关联分析（grey relation analysis，GRA）模型分析影响综合交通运输发展的国内生产总值（gross domestic product，GDP）、城镇化率、人口数量等关联因素与山东省综合交通运输效率的关联度。研究结果表明：在政策引导下，2010—2019年山东省综合交通运输效率呈周期性波动增长；人口数量、城镇化率及GDP对山东省综合交通运输效率影响显著，且关联度依次增大。综合交通运输效率评价与关联度分析可为山东省综合交通运输系统治理和效率提升提供理论依据。

关键词：综合交通；运输效率；DEA；GRA；关联度

The evaluation and correlation analysis of comprehensive transportation efficiency in Shandong Province

LI Xinghong, LIU Huaqiong^*,HU Zonglei

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357,China

Abstract:In order to measure the comprehensive transportation efficiency of Shandong Province, taking the highway mileage, railway mileage, air mileage and port berth number of Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019 as the input index, volume and turnover of passenger and freight traffic as the output index, the input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is adopted to calculate the transportation efficiency of Shandong Province. The grey relation analysis (GRA) model is used to analyze the degrees of correlation between some related indicators gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization rate, population and other related factors that affect the development of comprehensive transportation and the efficiency of comprehensive transportation in Shandong Province. The results show that: under the guidance of the governmental policy, the comprehensive transportation efficiency of Shandong Province shows a spiral fluctuation growth from 2010 to 2019; such factors as the number of population, urbanization rate and GDP have significant influence on the comprehensive transportation efficiency of Shandong Province, and the correlation degrees increase successively. Comprehensive transportation efficiency evaluation and correlation degree analysis can provide theoretical basis for Shandong Province comprehensive transportation systematic governance and efficiency improvement.

Keywords:comprehensive transportation; transportation efficiency; DEA; GRA; degrees of correlation