基于GIS的章丘区公路交通事故风险诱因分析

金昊男，李自豪，赵亮^*

山东交通学院 交通与物流工程学院，山东 济南  250357

摘要：为探究公路交通事故发生的风险诱因，以济南市章丘区5条国省道在2017-2019年发生的交通事故相关数据为研究对象，采用数理统计法分析交通事故发生的时间特性，采用地理信息系统（geographic information system，GIS）的地址编码技术获取交通事故点的经纬度坐标导入ArcGIS软件中，利用核密度与缓冲区工具分析章丘区事故多发区域和事故的严重程度；对交通事故样本数据进行空间自相关分析，并构建地理加权回归（geographically weighted regression，GWR）模型，分析事故量与各影响因素间的相关性。结果表明：交通事故多发于早春和秋季及早、晚高峰时段；章丘区存在3个事故多发区域和4个事故严重程度较大的缓冲区；区域的交通事故量具有强烈的空间相关性；道路中央隔离措施，视距不良，交通标志、标线残缺，车道数量与事故量的相关性最强。应加强优化章丘区路网结构，提供高品质的行车环境，完善完备交通基础设施，保障行车安全。

关键词：国省道；公路交通事故；风险诱因；ArcGIS；GWR

The risk inducement analysis of road traffic accidents in Zhangqiu District based on GIS

JIN Haonan，LI Zihao，ZHAO Liang^*

School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

Abstract:In order to explore the risk incentives of road traffic accidents, taking the traffic accident related data of five national and provincial roads in Zhangqiu District, Jinan from 2017 to 2019 as the research example, the time characteristics of traffic accidents are analyzed by mathematical statistics. The accident prone area and the severity extent of traffic accident are analyzed with the nuclear density and buffer zone tools of ArcGIS software after obtaining the longitude and latitude coordinates of traffic accident points by address coding technique of geographic information system(GIS). The spatial autocorrelation analysis of the traffic accidents sample data is carried out, and the correlation between accident quantity and various influencing factors is studied with the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that most traffic accidents occurred in early spring, autumn and morning and evening peak hours; There are three accident prone areas and four buffer areas with high traffic accident severity in Zhangqiu district, Jinan; There is a strong spatial correlation among traffic accidents quantity in different regions; There are the strongest correlation between road central divided measures, poor sight distance, disfunctional traffic signs and markings, and the number of lanes with accidents quantity. Driving safety is guaranteed with strengthened structure of Zhangqiu road network, high quality driving environment, and perfect traffic infrastructure.

Keywords:national and provincial road; traffic accident; risk incentive; ArcGIS; GWR